Equity Strategy: October Chartbook

Speaker: Mislav Matejka CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy

Despite some recent weakness, where SPX RSI turned technically oversold, we believe that the equity risk-reward remains challenging. Divergences between softer activity momentum and the elevated equity prices, as well as market internals, that opened up in the summer, are starting to close, but there is more to go. The PMI rebound that many were hoping for, the call that the weakness in manufacturing will end and join the more resilient services, remains elusive. In addition, real rates upmove is pressuring multiples, and this is even taking out Tech. Finally, Brent and USD rally should be seen as concerning for stocks. Most of Brent upmove is supply driven, and could lead to weaker final demand. Corporates might struggle to pass on rising input costs this time, in contrast to ’21-’22. Historically, strengthening USD was almost always met with risk-off in equities. We do not think that bond yields will be able to keep moving up for too much longer, and will likely ultimately fall, and that is precisely because of the “higher for longer” narrative by the Fed. Q4 could end up a very good time to lock in the long duration trade for the next 12 months. SX5E had gone nowhere for half a year now, and has lagged the US since May, coincident with our downgrade to UW – stay short. Even as we remain bearish on China over the medium term, a lot has happened, MSCI China is down 20% since January, and one should not be tactically pressing the shorts into year end, in our view. We reiterate recent call to close the shorts on Miners, and we stay OW Energy.

 

This podcast was recorded on 01 October 2023.

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