Equity Strategy - Better China trading could have some more to go; implications for regional/sector trades

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy

After a terrible spell between Jan ’23 and January of this year, where MSCI China lost almost 40%, it is now up 25% from the lows. While we do not believe that the longer term structural concerns of deflationary backdrop, real estate demand-supply imbalances, credit saturation and global decoupling are finished, our tactical view remains that the more positive China trading could last through summer, through July-August, until the US elections heat up in earnest. There is still an EM investor underweight on China, and the valuations probably have another 10-15% upside before closing the discount to historical. A more bullish tactical China stance was one of the drivers of our upgrade of Eurozone equities in Q1. We continue to believe that Eurozone risk-reward has improved, and that the region will at least hold its own vs the US, whether the overall market goes up or down. UK (OW) is also starting to trade better of late, erasing the almost 10% relative weakness seen earlier in the year. At sector level, we think commodities remain interesting as a way to position for more positive China trading, both Mining and Energy. We are less positive on some of other traditional China plays, such as Autos (UW) and Luxury (N). Pricing is a significant risk for both, as well as a potential volume disappointment, leaving their elevated margins at risk. More broadly, at sector level we have been arguing that Defensives should start to trade better, last month Real Estate, Utilities, Staples and Healthcare are top 4 sectors in Europe. Now, more positive tactical China call is clearly a big help for EM group, but we do not believe EM is a buy vs DM. The headwinds for EM remain Fed higher for longer, and stronger USD. EM equities typically struggle to outperform DM when their currencies are under pressure.

This podcast was recorded on 12 May 2024.

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