All into Account: ‘Market views on CPI, Megacaps vs Equal Weight S&P, PMI dislocations vs asset classes’ with Jason Hunter, Head of Technical Strategy

A slightly warmish CPI hasn’t moved the needle for us, so we stick with our current view on duration. Despite recently turning neutral on US duration, slowing growth and inflation should produce DM gov’t bond return of ~6.5% assuming our yield targets are realized. Upside risk for growth and inflation may continue to eat in to rate cutting plans. With the Magnificent 7 facing jitters and Equal Weight S&P at highs, we are skeptical of the breadth improvement as megacaps are still leading with the laggards dragged along for the ride. As for PMI dislocations vs risk assets, we acknowledge the improvement on the growth trajectory closing some of the gap, but historically, in the event of a 2 standard deviation gap, stocks have had to make more of the adjustment.

 

Speakers:

Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy

Jason Hunter, Head of Technical Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 12 March 2024. 
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